Sept. 30, 1964 - Secretary of State Dean Rusk said yesterday that Communist China might set off its first nuclear explosion “in the near future.”
His statement was based on an official estimate that the explosion could occur at any time, perhaps as soon as Thursday, the 15th anniversary of Communist rule on the Chinese mainland. The Peking Government, officials said, is in an advanced stage of preparation and readiness for an above-ground nuclear test.
Rusk promised that if the explosion occurred, “we shall know about it and will make the information public.”
At the same time, he pointed out that “the detonation of a first device does not mean a stockpile of nuclear weapons and the presence of modern delivery systems.”
In the opinion of analysts who have long expected a Chinese nuclear explosion at about this time, it will be at least five years and more likely 10 before Peking is able to produce enough plutonium for a sizable stockpile of nuclear bombs and some reasonably advanced vehicles capable of reaching distant targets.
The Administration’s latest estimate of China’s nuclear weapons program was reached in recent days on the basis of information obtained from several sources.
Some of that information was received from other Governments. Some is thought to have been gathered by U-2 reconnaissance planes flown by Chinese Nationalist pilots from Taiwan, and some by satellites and other forms of technological and conventional espionage.
Secretary Rusk’s statement, an unusual anticipation of a foreign event, was said to have been issued to head off surprise, presumably within the U.S. as well as abroad.
A Chinese nuclear test in the near future would confirm the estimates and predictions of many American experts. President Kennedy once said that a test would occur during his first term of office, that is before Jan. 20, 1965. He is also known to have feared the effect of such a test upon weaker governments along China’s borders.
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